Hengrui Pharmaceutical (600276): Performance in line with expectations PD1 sales are poised for development

Hengrui Pharmaceutical (600276): Performance in line with expectations PD1 sales are poised for development

On August 26th, Hengrui Pharmaceutical released its 2019 interim results report, realizing operating income, net profit attributable to mothers, and net profit attributable to mothers after deduction of 100.

2.6 billion, 24.

1.2 billion and 22.

8.9 billion, corresponding to a growth rate of 29.

19%, 26.

32% and 25.

21%, achieving an EPS of 0.

54 yuan / share.

The performance of the brief evaluation was in line with expectations. In the second quarter of the second quarter, which was in good operating conditions, the company realized revenue, which was attributed to the net profit of the mother and net profit after deduction was 50.

5.9 billion, 12.

20 billion, 11.

34 trillion, an increase of 29 each year.

61%, 27.

03% and 22.

72%.

In the second quarter, revenue continued to grow at a high rate. On the basis of good sales of supplementary varieties, it is expected that the sales of several newly approved heavyweight products last year also achieved good growth, which has a breakthrough effect on revenue.

The company achieved a gross profit margin of 86 in the first half of the year.

69%, an increase of 0 compared to the same period last year.

08 averages, basically stable.

Operating cash flow increased by 9 compared with last year.

43%, lower than the growth rate of revenue and profit, mainly due to the decline in operating cash flow in the first quarter due to acceptance of bills, discounts and other reasons, the second quarter of the second quarter increased operating cash flow growth.

26%, basic and income, profit growth match.

杭州夜网 In terms of expenses, the company achieved sales in the first half of the year (36.

51 billion, +30.

36%), management (8.

72 billion, +31.

60%), R & D (14.

84 billion, +49.

13%), finance (-53.14 million, -0.545 million in the same period last year) expense ratios were 36.
.

42%, 8.

70%, -0.

53% and 14.

80%, an increase of 0 compared to last year.

32, 0.

16.1.

98, 0.

12 units.
The increase in sales expenses was mainly due to the marketing of new varieties.
The high increase in research and development costs is mainly due to the development costs of research-in-progress varieties, the increase in the number of research and development personnel and compensation.

The sales of major product lines are growing well. Newly listed products are expected to reach the major product lines where 武汉夜生活网 medical insurance is welcoming. We expect the tumor product line to grow at about 30% and maintain strong growth. The sales of several new varieties are relatively stable.It is about 20%; the growth of the imaging product line is about 40%, and the growth rate has increased.

In 2019, a new round of adjustments to the medical insurance catalog was launched. We believe that the company’s newly approved pirlotinib and thiopefilgrastim last year tried to gradually replace the medical insurance. With reference to the volume of apatinib after entering the medical insurance, we thinkThe medical insurance adjustment has obvious positive significance for the company’s recently approved innovative drug volume.

Carelizumab monoclonal antibody was not approved to enter the medical insurance before December 31, 2018, but it is trying to enter through the transition next year. At the same time, the company’s rapid development of liver cancer, cancer, etc. will also be approved if it is successfully approved.It is expected to enter the medical insurance to achieve rapid volume increase.

R & D expenses have increased rapidly, and companies with rich reserves of innovative drug products have further increased R & D expenses in the first half of the year49.

13%, a single quarter growth of 43 in the second quarter.

57%.

The company continues to maintain sufficient R & D investment.

The company is currently researching a large number of varieties, and multiple varieties are being developed. PD-1 monoclonal antibodies are conducting multiple phase III clinical trials (including global multi-center trials of liver cancer). At the same time, new varieties are continuously being promoted at the same time.The rate is relatively high.

We believe that the current high investment in research and development will lay the foundation for the company’s development in the next 5-10 years.

Many years of continuous investment in innovative drug research and development has begun to enter the harvest stage.

Since 2018, Hengrui Pharmaceutical has a number of blockbuster products on the market successively, including carelizumab, pirlotinib, albumin paclitaxel, 19K and so on.

In the follow-up new drug R & D pipeline, remazolam, regaglitin, hangaglipemide, sea tropapar, and bevacizumab analogs are all in phase III clinical trials or have already been reported for production.We expect 2019For Hengrui, it will still be a harvest year for innovative drugs.

PD1 monoclonal antibody was approved for listing, and excellent clinical data for first-line clinical treatment. It is expected to seize the large indication market company Karelizumab successfully obtained CDE approval for listing in June this year, becoming the third domestically approved PD-1 monoclonal antibody.anti.

We believe that with the company’s excellent sales promotion team and oncology drug sales foundation, the PD-1 monoclonal antibody promotion ushered in rapid volume.

We believe that in the future, the market competition for PD-1 will continue to move towards indication development, drug combination, and biomarker development.

There are currently three relatively small indications for which domestic PD-1 mAbs have been approved.

Based on the current PD-1 mAb structure in China, Hengrui Medicine has maintained its leading position in dialysis, liver cancer, esophageal cancer, gastric cancer and other major indications, and can be used in combination with other drugs such as its own apatinib.Have a very strong competitive advantage.

According to our forecast, the domestic market space of Hengrui PD-1 monoclonal antibody is expected to exceed 10 billion.

In the abstract published by WCWC, interim data from a phase III clinical trial of carelizumab combined with chemotherapy (carboplatin + pemetrexed) versus first-line chemotherapy for advanced / metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, carelizumabThe anti + chemotherapy group significantly prolonged the primary endpoint of PFS.

Non-small cell lung cancer has a high incidence and is one of the largest segmented cancer types in the market for PD-1 monoclonal antibodies. First-line treatment is more important. Keytruda’s advantages in interventions in clinical treatment for first-line indications have surpassed Opdivo.

Hengrui’s development of this indication is ahead of other domestic competitors1.

5-2 years, based on the current Hengrui excellent clinical trial data, we believe that Hengrui Carizolizumab will continue to lead in the follow-up progress of non-standard non-small cell lung cancer first-line indications and try to be the first to be approved by domestic manufacturers, Especially in the follow-up medical insurance negotiations is expected to expand the starting position, for the volume of products will have a positive significance of breakthroughs.

Earnings forecast and investment rating Hengrui Pharmaceutical is a leading company in the field of research and development of innovative drugs in China. The conversion of pirlotinib, 19K, Karelizumab and other varieties have been approved. In addition to other apatinib, the company sells innovative drugs.The varieties are leading in domestic enterprises.

Under the influence of the current centralized procurement and other industry policies, the company is also an internal transformation and transformation from generic drugs to innovative drugs. In the future, the share of innovative drugs will rapidly increase, which is a scarce quality target in the industry.

We believe that the company merges the company’s current R & D investment and variety research and development, sales progress, future innovative variety growth and continued acceleration.

We estimate that Hengrui Medicine’s net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021 will be 51.

26, 64.

79, 82.

14 trillion, corresponding to a growth rate of 26.

1%, 26.

4% and 26.

8%, equivalent to 1, respectively.

16.1.

46, 1.

86 yuan / share, corresponding to PE of 66, 53, 41 times, maintaining the “buy” level.

Risks indicate that the progress of approval of innovative drug varieties does not take into account expectations; the advancement of clinical trials does not take into account expectations; market competition is fierce.